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SRI LANKA2003

Iraq war expected to have severe impact on Sri Lankan economic recovery

Renewed war in the Middle East will likely have disproportionate effects on the Sri Lankan economy. Three major revenue earners for Sri Lanka depend in large part on the Middle East:

Unsold tea piles up in the world’s largest tea warehouse owned by Asia Siyaka of Colombo.
Photo by James Overly
Minister of Commerce and Consumer Affairs Ravi Karunanayake is concerned about the impact of war on investment and the cost of living.
Photo by James Overly

• Remittances from Sri Lankan workers abroad: Nearly one million Sri Lankans work in the Middle East; their remittances are the largest single source of foreign exchange revenue for the country.

• Tea exports: The largest market for Sri Lankan tea is the Middle East. Tea sales have slowed dramatically since fears of war arose in early February. Middle Eastern countries have responded to heightened security concerns by closing their borders, which severely limits both legal and illegal transshipments of tea.

• Tourism: Sri Lanka’s tourism arrivals have doubled in one year, as a result of the ceasefire and the rising prospect for permanent peace. The largest number of tourists comes from Europe, and the air routes they fly skirt Iraq. Most observers believe that tourism will suffer dramatically, as it did following the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the 1990 Gulf War. Airlines are expected to severely curtail flights in the area as long as hostilities continue.

In addition to the effects on revenue, Sir Lanka’s economy is also suffering the effects of petroleum price increases during the last two months. The government, already under pressure from a public tired of steady increases in the cost of living, has promised to help alleviate the effects of higher petrol prices, but the state of government revenues and the government’s economic reform programs will limit what the government can do.

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Alexander J. Kersis III
Senior Writer
James Overly

 

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