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DENMARK2002

Financial stability is Central Bank goal
Denmark’s authorities seek to avoid 'big swings'

Chair of The Danish Central Bank, Bodil Nyboe Andersen
Courtesy National Bank of Denmark

Bodil Nyboe Andersen chairs the Danish central bank.

There are three members of the Board of Governors responsible for monetary policy decisions.

“We three are, in a collective way, responsible for the monetary policy,” she says. The Central Bank enjoys full independence in its monetary policy. They print money and mint coins. It is a small, tightly run institution with under 600 employees.

The bank takes care of all the normal central bank activities. It prints money and mints coins. Besides monetary policy and payment systems, it manages the foreign currency reserves, produces economic analysis and undertakes various kinds of trading activities. In addition, the central bank is the agent for government borrowing when that is necessary. “It hasn’t had to borrow net lately because it has a surplus," says Ms. Andersen. "But it has to refinance the old debts.”

The central bank was set up in 1818 to curb hyperinflation that occurred in the wake of the Napoleonic Wars. Denmark had to give Norway to Sweden.This hyperinflation, called a government bankruptcy, ended in 1813. The bank, says Ms. Andersen, was “set up to give credibility to money again -- to show the world that the printing presses were governed.” It’s been functioning that way ever since. “We have a stability-oriented economic policy.”

The bank now operates under a law from 1936. Quite unusual for the time, the legislation gave them full independence. Therefore, Denmark didn’t have to change the law when the Maastricht Treaty went into effect.

“Contrary to the other out-countries, we peg to the euro with a stable exchange rate policy. Since the 1980s we followed that successfully. So when the European Central Bank changes interest rates we do the same, with possible local variations relating to the capital movements.”

Denmark’s goal is to regulate economic activity and inflation through fiscal policy. Monetary policy has been aimed at supporting exchange rate policy, the object of which is to ensure a stable exchange rate for the Danish krone. They have worked in the European exchange rate agreements like the EMS European Monetary System (EMS), which developed into the European Monetary Union (EMU) in 1999. Denmark has chosen to stay outside, but they keep the krone to a central parity of DKK 7.46 per euro, with a tiny fluctuation band of plus or minus 2.25 under the ERM2 agreement – the successor to EMS.

The tools they have to work with, as with most central banks, aren’t many. They can cut or raise short-term interest rates. They can intervene in the foreign exchange markets, which they did as recently as last Sept. ”It’s quite regular with small amounts,” Andersen says.

Many people believe, of course, that the euro will trickle into the Danish economy. Tourists are already paying for things with them.

Thor Pedersen, the finance minister, is an enthusiastic member of the new government, and passionate about his new role.

“I do everything, everywhere," he says. "This ministry is the hands or the nerves everywhere. It’s not about economy only, it's also about politics. So to make politics you have many possibilities to give ideas to your colleagues.” It would be unthinkable to make a major policy decision without consulting the Ministry of Finance.

Pedersen's proudest achievement so far was creating the budget for 2002. “We took over on November 27 and canceled the [previous government’s budget] -- 3,000 pages in three weeks," he says. "We worked day and night for 20 days, and we had a good result, with very few mistakes. We presented it on a Friday and we had an agreement Monday, which has never been seen before.”

Right now the government is sitting on a surplus 2.2 percent of GDP, and it projects the same for next year. “The private sector and public are financially sound,” he says. “We have the lowest level of unemployment in 20 years -- less than five percent. We will see a 2.3 percent growth in 2003 -- pretty much the limit of our capacity. We have no economic problems and hope not till 2010.”

Asked for an example of Danish financial stability, the head of the central bank's secretariat, Bjarne Skafte, said that, “A lot of Americans have pensions in Danish bonds and they don’t know it -- in government or mortgage bonds."

Ms. Andersen’s message on the state of Denmark’s financial condition: "We’ve had a very stable economic development, low inflation, low unemployment, and a stable surplus. The most important thing is to have no big swings.”

For more information, please visit: www.nationalbanken.dk



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